Strategy prompt

Second-order thinking before a big decision

Map what happens now, what that triggers, and what shows up 6 to 12 months later, on both the yes and no paths.

How it helps

You see the consequences three steps out, on both the yes and the no path, before you commit.

How to use it

Copy the prompt below.
Swap each [bracket] for your own details. The more specific you are, the better the answer.
Paste it into Claude, ChatGPT, or Gemini and send it.

The prompt

I'm about to make a decision in my [cannabis business] and I want to think it through using Second-Order Thinking, as Howard Marks describes it. Map the consequences in three layers:
- First order: what happens immediately
- Second order: what that triggers next
- Third order: what that causes 6 to 12 months from now

Do this for both paths: 'I do it' and 'I don't do it.' Be specific to licensed cannabis. Account for competitor response, price compression, how dispensary buyers or distributors react, loyalty members' expectations, cash flow and taxes, the state regulator, and team morale where relevant. Be brutally honest about the downstream effects. My decision: [DESCRIBE THE DECISION YOU'RE FACING]

What you fill in

cannabis business
DESCRIBE THE DECISION YOU'RE FACING

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